I am social scientist and demographer working at the Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton. I currently work on methods for the probabilistic forecasting of demographic components such as mortality and fertility. My research interests include population forecasting, applied Bayesian statistics and simulation. I work mainly in
stan. While working for the Centre for Population Change, I have been involved in consultancy or contract work for the Greater London Authority, the European Asylum Support Office and the Office of National Statistics. I also write for and co-edit the demotrends blog.
I obtained my PhD in Complex Systems Simulation from the University of Southampton for work on the use of Bayesian methods for the analysis of computer experiments in the context of demographic agent-based models. I also hold an MSc in Demography, also from the University of Southampton, and a BA in Politics from the University of York.
I grew up in Malvern, Worcestershire, and after my undergraduate studies, I worked in Oxford in the market research industry for the Nielsen Company, analysing sales data in the consumable goods industry.