I am currently working with colleagues on a number of projects involving Bayesian forecasting of population.
Projecting UK Mortality using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models
with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster, and Peter W.F Smith. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C). Also available as a pre-print on arxiv
Forecasting Fertility using Bayesian Parametric Mixtures
with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster, Jakub Bijak and Peter W.F Smith. Available as a pre-print on arxiv.
Modelling Frontier Mortality using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models
with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster and Peter W.F Smith. Working paper available from github.
Agent Based Modelling and Simulation
My PhD looked at the use of Gaussian Process Emulators for the anaylsis and calibration of demographic Agent-Based Models.
- Visualising weekly mortality data using polar graphs.
Work arising from the Rostock Retreat on visualisation, examining the use of
htmlas integral parts of an academic paper.
I have been involved in various pieces of work for outside agencies with colleague from the Centre for Population Change.
- Quantitative assessment of asylum-related migration.
Report for the European Asylum Support Agency (EASO) assessing the data and methods associated with forecasting asylum-related migration.
- Independent review of population projection methodology of the Greater London Authority.
We produced an independent review of the projection methodology used by the Greater London Authority, identifying minor discrepancies and identifying areas for improvement. Our recommendation to smooth demographic rates was adopted in the subsequent round of GLA projections.
I have also previously worked on a contract basis with the Flowminder Foundation.
My blog pieces for Demotrends can be found here