Research and Working Papers

A complete list of my publications and the projects I've been involved in can be found on the CPC website or on Google scholar.


Population Forecasting

I am currently working with colleagues on a number of projects involving Bayesian forecasting of population.

  • Projecting UK Mortality using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models
    with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster, and Peter W.F Smith. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C). Also available as a pre-print on arxiv

  • Forecasting Fertility using Bayesian Parametric Mixtures
    with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster, Jakub Bijak and Peter W.F Smith. Available as a pre-print on arxiv.

  • Modelling Frontier Mortality using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models
    with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster and Peter W.F Smith. Working paper available from github.

Agent Based Modelling and Simulation

My PhD looked at the use of Gaussian Process Emulators for the anaylsis and calibration of demographic Agent-Based Models.

Visualisation

Other work

I have been involved in various pieces of work for outside agencies with colleague from the Centre for Population Change.

I have also previously worked on a contract basis with the Flowminder Foundation.

Demotrends

My blog pieces for Demotrends can be found here