Research and Working Papers
A complete list of my publications and the projects I've been involved in can be found on the CPC website or on Google scholar.
Population Estimation and Forecasting
I have worked on a number of papers involving the modelling, estiamtion and forecasting of population processes.
-
Projecting UK Mortality using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models
with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster, and Peter W.F Smith. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C). Also available as a pre-print on arxiv -
Modelling Frontier Mortality using Bayesian Generalised Additive Models
with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster and Peter W.F Smith. Journal of Official Statistics 37 (3), 569-589 https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0026 -
Forecasting Fertility using Bayesian Parametric Mixtures
with Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster, Jakub Bijak and Peter W.F Smith. Available as a pre-print on arxiv
Forced Migration
-
Towards an Early Warning System for Monitoring Asylum-related migration flows in Europe
with Joanna NapieraĆa, Jonathan J Forster, Marcello Carammia, Jakub Bijak. International Migation Review 56 (1), 33-62 https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183211035736 -
How safe is this trip? Judging personal safety in a pandemic based on information from different sources
with Toby Prike, Jakub Bijak, Philip A Higham. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 28(3), 509-524. https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000415
Agent Based Modelling and Simulation
I have also conducted research into the use of Gaussian Process Emulators for the anaylsis and calibration of demographic Agent-Based Models.
-
Automatic reuse, adaption, and execution of simulation experiments via provenance patterns with Pia Wilsdorf, Anja Wolpers, Fiete Haack, Adelinde M. Uhrmacher. ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulations (TOMACS). 33 (1-2) 4 pp 1-27.https://doi.org/10.1145/3564928
-
Streamlining Simulation Experiments with Agent-Based Models in Demography with Oliver Reinhardt, Tom Warnke, Jakub Bijak and Adelinde Uhrmacher. Journal of Artifical Societies and Social Simulation. https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.3784
-
Modelling the Easterlin Effect using Agent-Based Simulation.
IUSSP paper.
Kinship Modelling
I am leading a workstream within the ESRC Connecting Generations centre on the modelling and forecasting of kinship. This is a very exciting project, and I am very pleased to be working with a great team including the researchers Dr Joanne Ellison and Dr Joe Butterick, as well as my collaborators Profs. Eren Dodd, Jakub Bijak and Peter W.F. Smith. This project is just getting off the ground, but we are looking forward to some exciting outputs in the coming years.
Other work
I have been involved in various pieces of work for outside agencies with colleagues from the Centre for Population Change.
- Office for National Statistics Ongoing advice and support on development of Dynamic Population Model
- United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR)
Estimating demographics of asylum stocks in Europe and Iran. - Quantitative assessment of asylum-related migration.
Report for the European Asylum Support Agency (EASO) assessing the data and methods associated with forecasting asylum-related migration. - Independent review of population projection methodology of the Greater London Authority.
We produced an independent review of the projection methodology used by the Greater London Authority, identifying minor discrepancies and identifying areas for improvement. Our recommendation to smooth demographic rates was adopted in the subsequent round of GLA projections.
I have also previously worked on a contract basis with the Flowminder Foundation.
Demotrends
My blog pieces for Demotrends can be found here